Nourishing Resilience: Adapting Food Systems for Climate Realities

Eric Desai — November 1, 2024

^{“Adapt­abil­i­ty has been an essen­tial ingre­di­ent for sur­viv­ing and thriv­ing for every species of life, from life’s begin­ning on Earth.” –Ronald Heifetz, Mar­ty Linksy}

If you have glanced at your gro­cery bill late­ly, you prob­a­bly felt a sense of disbelief—the prices have almost dou­bled what they were a year ago. As you nav­i­gate the aisles, the stark real­i­ty of ris­ing food prices hits you at every turn.

That bot­tle of olive oil you use for cook­ing? Its price has near­ly dou­bled com­pared to two years ago. Your favorite brand of cof­fee? The price has jumped by a quar­ter with­in the last 12 months alone, mak­ing your dai­ly brew feel like a lux­u­ry.

As you unpack your gro­ceries, you may won­der if this is the new nor­mal. Ris­ing prices are caus­ing many to rethink their choic­es, such as opt­ing for cheap­er brands, pur­chas­ing small­er quan­ti­ties, or chang­ing their favorite recipes. These are not just num­bers on a receipt; they are shift­ing the way we eat, shop, and live.

While var­i­ous fac­tors con­tribute to ris­ing food costs, cli­mate change is becom­ing one of the most sig­nif­i­cant. Brazil, the world’s top cof­fee pro­duc­er, is endur­ing its worst drought in 70 years, slash­ing yields and dri­ving up prices world­wide. At the same time, the U.S. South­east is reel­ing from Hur­ri­cane Helene, a cat­a­stroph­ic storm that has tak­en hun­dreds of lives, left mil­lions with­out pow­er and caused an esti­mat­ed $160 bil­lion in dam­ages, includ­ing $7 bil­lion in crop loss­es alone.

These events reveal the fragili­ty of our inter­con­nect­ed food sys­tems. As cli­mate dis­rup­tions become more fre­quent and severe, har­vests will suf­fer, grow­ing sea­sons will shift, and agri­cul­tur­al regions will be trans­formed. This won’t just dri­ve food price insta­bil­i­ty; it will cre­ate broad­er chal­lenges that rip­ple across the entire food val­ue chain, affect­ing stakeholders—from pro­duc­ers to consumers—at every lev­el.

At Ground­Force Cap­i­tal, we rec­og­nize the pro­found impact cli­mate change has not only on the broad­er econ­o­my but also on glob­al food pro­duc­tion and dis­tri­b­u­tion. We invest across the entire con­sumer pack­aged goods (CPG) val­ue chain, from agri­cul­tur­al inno­va­tion to beloved con­sumer brands, active­ly shap­ing the future of our food sys­tem*.

Our port­fo­lio com­pa­nies, like much of the food indus­try*, are tack­ling the oper­a­tional chal­lenges posed by shift­ing cli­mate pat­terns, includ­ing sup­ply chain dis­rup­tions, infla­tion of crit­i­cal com­modi­ties, and com­pressed prof­it mar­gins. These chal­lenges are exac­er­bat­ed by the con­cen­tra­tion of agri­cul­tur­al pro­duc­tion, both geo­graph­i­cal­ly and by crop type, which cre­ates vul­ner­a­bil­i­ties in our food sys­tem. While this con­cen­tra­tion can be eco­nom­i­cal­ly effi­cient in sta­ble times, it risks sig­nif­i­cant vul­ner­a­bil­i­ties in an era of cli­mate vari­abil­i­ty, lead­ing to more fre­quent sup­ply dis­rup­tions and price volatil­i­ty in the glob­al food mar­ket.

For all par­tic­i­pants in the food val­ue chain, this real­i­ty presents both chal­lenges and oppor­tu­ni­ties. While much of the cli­mate dis­course has focused on mit­i­gat­ing green­house gas emis­sions, we believe that adap­ta­tion is equal­ly cru­cial. Adapt­ing food sys­tems involves adjust­ing prac­tices, process­es, and infra­struc­ture to reduce vul­ner­a­bil­i­ty to cli­mate impacts. By embrac­ing this approach, we can build food sys­tems that are not only more sus­tain­able but also resilient, capa­ble of thriv­ing amidst ongo­ing cli­mate changes. At Ground­Force Cap­i­tal, we are com­mit­ted to invest­ing in and sup­port­ing the inno­va­tions that will make this vision a real­i­ty.

*Authors’ Note: While this arti­cle focus­es pri­mar­i­ly on the food sys­tem, many of the impacts and insights dis­cussed are also applic­a­ble to the broad­er food, bev­er­age, and con­sumer pack­aged goods (CPG) indus­tries.

A Climate-Disrupted Food System

The impacts of cli­mate change on glob­al food sys­tems are mul­ti­fac­eted and inter­con­nect­ed. Cli­mate change is reshap­ing our food sys­tems in sev­er­al crit­i­cal ways:

Shifting Temperature Zones

Glob­al tem­per­a­ture increas­es are already caus­ing sig­nif­i­cant alter­ations in tra­di­tion­al grow­ing regions world­wide. This is exem­pli­fied by changes in tem­per­a­ture clas­si­fi­ca­tion sys­tems like the Unit­ed States Depart­ment of Agri­cul­ture’s (USDA) Plant Har­di­ness Zones. These zones, which guide farm­ers on suit­able crops for their area, have shift­ed notably in recent years. Over the past decade alone, these zones have moved north­ward by half a zone—equivalent to a 5°F increase in aver­age annu­al min­i­mum tem­per­a­tures.

^{USDA Plant Har­di­ness Zone Map com­par­i­son 2012 vs. 2023 (Source: USDA).}

Sim­i­lar shifts are being observed glob­al­ly, impact­ing agri­cul­tur­al pro­duc­tion and com­mod­i­ty prices. For instance, in 2020, France expe­ri­enced a 27% decrease in wine pro­duc­tion due to record-break­ing heat, while a 2021 heat­wave in the state of Wash­ing­ton destroyed 30% of its cher­ry crop, result­ing in $100 mil­lion in loss­es, with some farm­ers report­ing cher­ries melt­ing off the trees.

Look­ing for­ward, research projects these zones will con­tin­ue to move north­ward at a rate of approx­i­mate­ly 20–60 km per decade, dra­mat­i­cal­ly reshap­ing the agri­cul­tur­al land­scape. For exam­ple, by the end of the cen­tu­ry, suit­able areas for olive cul­ti­va­tion in Spain could decrease by 22% to 72%, while some vari­eties could be wiped out entire­ly. This would dras­ti­cal­ly dis­rupt the glob­al olive oil mar­ket, as Spain cur­rent­ly pro­duces about 40% of the world’s sup­ply.

Changing Precipitation Patterns

Cli­mate change is dri­ving sub­stan­tial alter­ations in glob­al rain­fall pat­terns as cer­tain regions are expe­ri­enc­ing increased pre­cip­i­ta­tion and flood­ing, while oth­ers face pro­longed peri­ods of drought. In 2021, Brazil expe­ri­enced its worst drought in near­ly a cen­tu­ry, cou­pled with a severe frost, caus­ing cof­fee prices to increase as much as 60%. A year lat­er, Pak­istan’s floods destroyed over 3.6 mil­lion acres of crops, wip­ing out 80% of rice crop and 70% of cot­ton fields in some regions, equat­ing to $3.7 bil­lion in agri­cul­tur­al and live­stock loss­es.

^{One of the mil­lions of farm­ers that were impact­ed by the severe floods in Pak­istan (Source: NY Times).}

These unpre­dictable shifts in pre­cip­i­ta­tion intro­duce sig­nif­i­cant volatil­i­ty, mak­ing agri­cul­tur­al plan­ning increas­ing­ly dif­fi­cult. Cal­i­for­nia serves as a prime exam­ple of this chal­lenge: a decade ago, droughts between 2014 and 2016 caused $3.8 bil­lion in agri­cul­tur­al loss­es, fol­lowed by a severe flood the fol­low­ing year that inflict­ed mil­lions in addi­tion­al dam­age. Recent droughts have also forced many farm­ers to remove or aban­don almond orchards, alter­ing long-term pro­duc­tion capac­i­ty.

Extreme Weather Events

Cli­mate change is ampli­fy­ing both the fre­quen­cy and sever­i­ty of extreme weath­er events, pos­ing sig­nif­i­cant chal­lenges to glob­al food sys­tems. Accord­ing to the World Mete­o­ro­log­i­cal Orga­ni­za­tion, weath­er-relat­ed dis­as­ters have increased five­fold over the past 50 years, with eco­nom­ic loss­es ris­ing sev­en­fold. Extreme weath­er events like hur­ri­canes, floods, and wild­fires, which are expect­ed to become even more fre­quent, threat­en to dev­as­tate crops and dis­rupt sup­ply chains on a mas­sive scale.

^{Cumu­la­tive glob­al eco­nom­ic loss­es have accu­mu­lat­ed to over $2 tril­lion since 2000 (Source: Aon).}

Recent events high­light the sever­i­ty of these impacts: in 2017, Hur­ri­cane Maria destroyed 80% of Puer­to Rico’s crop val­ue, caus­ing rough­ly $1 bil­lion in agri­cul­tur­al loss­es. Sim­i­lar­ly, California’s 2018 Camp Fire dev­as­tat­ed 30,000 to 40,000 acres of range­land in Butte Coun­ty, dis­plac­ing ani­mals and severe­ly affect­ing graz­ing land for live­stock.

Locomoting Tides for Food System Stakeholders

Cli­mate change is reshap­ing the entire food sys­tem, affect­ing stake­hold­ers at every lev­el of the sup­ply chain. The con­se­quences are far-reach­ing, from pro­duc­tion chal­lenges to shift­ing con­sumer behav­iors.

Upstream Input Pro­duc­ers: Com­pa­nies pro­duc­ing agri­cul­tur­al inputs are high­ly sen­si­tive to ener­gy mar­ket volatil­i­ty, exac­er­bat­ed by cli­mate change. Extreme weath­er events can dis­rupt ener­gy pro­duc­tion and dis­tri­b­u­tion, lead­ing to price fluc­tu­a­tions.

This volatil­i­ty is ampli­fied by geopo­lit­i­cal events, as demon­strat­ed by the Rus­sia-Ukraine con­flict, which caused a surge in nat­ur­al gas prices—a key com­po­nent in fer­til­iz­er pro­duc­tion. Addi­tion­al­ly, unpre­dictable weath­er pat­terns com­pli­cate deci­sions about effec­tive inputs for upcom­ing grow­ing sea­sons. These fac­tors cre­ate a rip­ple effect of increased costs and uncer­tain­ty through­out the food sup­ply chain, impact­ing farm­ers and con­sumers alike.

Farm­ers: Posi­tioned on the front lines of our chang­ing food sys­tem, farm­ers face mount­ing chal­lenges that threat­en their pro­duc­tion, finan­cial sta­bil­i­ty, and liveli­hoods. Extreme weath­er events, such as the 2019 Mid­west floods that pre­vent­ed 19.4 mil­lion acres of crops from being plant­ed, are grow­ing more fre­quent. Ris­ing tem­per­a­tures and unpre­dictable weath­er pat­terns are expos­ing out­door work­ers to height­ened heat stress, reduc­ing labor capac­i­ty dur­ing crit­i­cal peri­ods. Live­stock is also vul­ner­a­ble, expe­ri­enc­ing decreased fer­til­i­ty, health com­pli­ca­tions, and reduced pro­duc­tion due to heat stress. Addi­tion­al­ly, cli­mate change is alter­ing the dis­tri­b­u­tion of pests, weeds, and dis­eases in agri­cul­tur­al sys­tems, increas­ing biot­ic stress on crops and live­stock. Small-scale farm­ers, who often lack access to crop insur­ance and advanced tech­nolo­gies, are espe­cial­ly vul­ner­a­ble to these chal­lenges.

Fish­ers and Aqua­cul­ture Oper­a­tors: Cli­mate change is sig­nif­i­cant­ly alter­ing marine and fresh­wa­ter ecosys­tems. Ocean warm­ing has decreased the sus­tain­able yields of some wild fish pop­u­la­tions, forc­ing fish­ers to trav­el far­ther or shift their tar­get species.

Addi­tion­al­ly, ocean acid­i­fi­ca­tion and ris­ing tem­per­a­tures are already affect­ing farmed aquat­ic species, fur­ther com­pli­cat­ing aqua­cul­ture oper­a­tions. Small-scale and arti­sanal fish­ers in trop­i­cal regions, who often lack the resources to adapt quick­ly, are espe­cial­ly vul­ner­a­ble to these shifts. As cli­mate change alters marine ecosys­tems, it threat­ens not only liveli­hoods but also the food secu­ri­ty of coastal com­mu­ni­ties and beyond.

Food Man­u­fac­tur­ers and Proces­sors: These stake­hold­ers are grap­pling with ris­ing com­mod­i­ty prices, sup­ply chain dis­rup­tions, and resource scarci­ty. For exam­ple, cocoa prices have near­ly tripled this year due to cli­mate-relat­ed dis­rup­tions in West Africa, which accounts for 70% of glob­al sup­ply.

As a result, com­pa­nies like Her­shey are explor­ing alter­na­tive ingre­di­ents, adjust­ing their prod­uct offer­ings, and diver­si­fy­ing their sup­ply chains. Water scarci­ty is also forc­ing com­pa­nies to rethink their resource use and help sup­port munic­i­pal infra­struc­ture in water-stressed regions.

Addi­tion­al­ly, cli­mate change is sig­nif­i­cant­ly impact­ing food safe­ty as high­er tem­per­a­tures and humid­i­ty accel­er­ate the growth of tox­i­genic fun­gi, plant and ani­mal-based pathogens, and harm­ful algal blooms. More fre­quent and severe flood­ing is expect­ed to fur­ther increase the risk of food con­t­a­m­i­na­tion.

^{Cocoa prices have surged to more than $10,000 per met­ric ton (Source: Bloomberg).}

Dis­trib­u­tors and Retail­ers: Shift­ing cli­mates are com­pli­cat­ing food stor­age and trans­porta­tion, expos­ing vul­ner­a­bil­i­ties in com­plex sup­ply chains. Ris­ing tem­per­a­tures increase the need for refrig­er­a­tion, dri­ving up both costs and emis­sions for dis­trib­u­tors and retail­ers.

Extreme weath­er events fre­quent­ly dis­rupt trans­porta­tion routes, fur­ther increas­ing freight costs. Gro­cers face cli­mate-induced sup­ply volatil­i­ty, com­pli­cat­ing pro­cure­ment strate­gies. At the same time, they are under grow­ing pres­sure to reduce food waste and improve sus­tain­abil­i­ty efforts, fur­ther squeez­ing already thin prof­it mar­gins.

Con­sumers: The impacts of cli­mate change are becom­ing increas­ing­ly evi­dent on super­mar­ket shelves and house­hold bud­gets world­wide. Prices for essen­tial goods like cof­fee, dairy, fruit, eggs, and cook­ing oils have surged part­ly due to cli­mate-relat­ed fac­tors.

For exam­ple, olive oil prices have dou­bled over the past year, pri­mar­i­ly due to severe droughts and heat in major pro­duc­ing regions like Spain, while orange juice costs have dou­bled since 2020, dri­ven by extreme weath­er and cit­rus dis­eases affect­ing Florida’s crop yields.

These effects also extend to house­hold goods like laun­dry deter­gent and per­son­al care prod­ucts, many of which rely on agri­cul­tur­al ingre­di­ents. As raw mate­r­i­al costs rise, con­sumers will see increased prices for these every­day items, fur­ther strain­ing fam­i­ly bud­gets.

These price hikes dis­pro­por­tion­ate­ly impact vul­ner­a­ble groups, includ­ing women, chil­dren, low-income house­holds, Indige­nous com­mu­ni­ties, and small-scale pro­duc­ers. The con­se­quences extend beyond imme­di­ate finan­cial strain, as food inse­cu­ri­ty can lead to long-term health issues and reduced edu­ca­tion­al out­comes.

In urban areas, par­tic­u­lar­ly in low-income neigh­bor­hoods, cli­mate change exac­er­bates the prob­lem of food deserts—areas with lim­it­ed access to afford­able, nutri­tious food. As extreme weath­er events dis­rupt sup­ply chains and dri­ve up food prices, these areas become even more vul­ner­a­ble, fur­ther widen­ing the nutri­tion gap between afflu­ent and dis­ad­van­taged com­mu­ni­ties.

The impact of cli­mate change on food secu­ri­ty extends beyond indi­vid­ual house­holds and local com­mu­ni­ties. The World Bank projects that cli­mate change could push an addi­tion­al 132 mil­lion peo­ple into pover­ty by 2030, dri­ven large­ly by esca­lat­ing food costs and declin­ing agri­cul­tur­al yields.

Fur­ther­more, cli­mate change is increas­ing­ly dri­ving migra­tion, as peo­ple are forced to leave areas where agri­cul­tur­al pro­duc­tiv­i­ty has declined or where extreme weath­er events have made liv­ing con­di­tions unten­able. This cli­mate-induced migra­tion often exac­er­bates exist­ing food secu­ri­ty chal­lenges, both in the regions peo­ple are leav­ing and, in the areas where they reset­tle, cre­at­ing a com­plex web of inter­con­nect­ed glob­al issues.

Pol­i­cy­mak­ers: These stake­hold­ers play a piv­otal role in dri­ving cli­mate adap­ta­tion across food sys­tems. To improve resilience, pol­i­cy­mak­ers can imple­ment finan­cial incen­tives for regen­er­a­tive agri­cul­ture, devel­op stricter envi­ron­men­tal stan­dards, and invest in cli­mate-resilient crops and tech­nolo­gies. They can also enhance dis­as­ter pre­pared­ness, strength­en social safe­ty nets for affect­ed farm­ers, and sup­port cli­mate-resilient infra­struc­ture. These mea­sures are vital not only for food secu­ri­ty but also for main­tain­ing geopo­lit­i­cal sta­bil­i­ty, as food inse­cu­ri­ty can lead to social unrest and polit­i­cal insta­bil­i­ty.

Addi­tion­al­ly, cli­mate adap­ta­tion poli­cies tend to be less par­ti­san and more polit­i­cal­ly agnos­tic, mak­ing them eas­i­er to imple­ment across dif­fer­ent admin­is­tra­tions. While steps have been tak­en, such as the U.S. Bipar­ti­san Infra­struc­ture Law, which allo­cat­ed bil­lions for cli­mate resilience projects, and the EU’s Cor­po­rate Sus­tain­abil­i­ty Report­ing Direc­tive, more com­pre­hen­sive action is cru­cial. Poli­cies must evolve rapid­ly to keep pace with cli­mate change, par­tic­u­lar­ly in vul­ner­a­ble regions where food secu­ri­ty is at risk.

Across the food sys­tem, stake­hold­ers are fac­ing ris­ing oper­a­tional costs, sup­ply chain uncer­tain­ties, and the need for long-term strate­gic shifts.

These pres­sures are push­ing all play­ers to strength­en their abil­i­ty to mea­sure, mon­i­tor, report, and man­age cli­mate-relat­ed risks.

The inter­con­nect­ed­ness of these chal­lenges under­scores the need for a col­lab­o­ra­tive, sys­tem-wide approach to build­ing resilience in our food sys­tems, requir­ing coor­di­nat­ed efforts from the pri­vate sec­tor, gov­ern­ments, and civ­il soci­ety orga­ni­za­tions.

Complementing Mitigation with Resilience

^{“If decar­boniza­tion is the new indus­tri­al­iza­tion, adap­ta­tion is the new mod­ern­iza­tion.” – The Clean­Tech Group}

Effec­tive cli­mate change strate­gies require both mit­i­ga­tion and adap­ta­tion efforts, each play­ing a cru­cial role in address­ing the chal­lenges ahead. While mit­i­ga­tion focus­es on reduc­ing green­house gas emis­sions to slow the pace of cli­mate change, adap­ta­tion is about mod­ern­iz­ing our sys­tems and infra­struc­ture to with­stand and thrive in the face of cli­mate impacts that are already being felt.

Why is adap­ta­tion so vital? Even if we halt­ed all green­house gas emis­sions today, we would still face decades of cli­mate change due to the gas­es already in the atmos­phere. There­fore, adap­ta­tion is not an alter­na­tive to mit­i­ga­tion but a nec­es­sary com­ple­ment to it. In the food sys­tem, adap­ta­tion refers to adjust­ing agri­cul­tur­al prac­tices, sup­ply chain process­es, and pro­duc­tion infra­struc­ture to strength­en resilience against cli­mate-relat­ed risks.

In many cas­es, adap­ta­tion strate­gies can rein­force mit­i­ga­tion efforts, yield­ing both short-term and long-term ben­e­fits. For instance, in the food sys­tem, reduc­ing food waste not only strength­ens agri­cul­tur­al sus­tain­abil­i­ty (adap­ta­tion) but also cuts methane emis­sions (mit­i­ga­tion). Sim­i­lar­ly, pro­tect­ing forests as part of wild­fire man­age­ment both builds resilience against future cli­mate events and sup­ports decar­boniza­tion by pre­serv­ing nat­ur­al car­bon sinks.

The Strategic Value of Climate Adaptation

The val­ue of cli­mate adap­ta­tion is increas­ing­ly clear. Accord­ing to pro­jec­tions by Bank of Amer­i­ca, the mar­ket for cli­mate adap­ta­tion could reach $2 tril­lion annu­al­ly with­in the next five years. How­ev­er, there remains a sig­nif­i­cant gap between the need for adap­ta­tion and cur­rent invest­ment lev­els. Cur­rent­ly, only 7% of cli­mate-relat­ed invest­ments are direct­ed towards adap­ta­tion. Even more striking–a mere $43 bil­lion, or 3% of the $1.3 tril­lion in cli­mate finance spent in 2021 and 2022 was allo­cat­ed to agri­cul­ture, forestry, land use, and fish­eries.

Financ­ing cli­mate adap­ta­tion is a sig­nif­i­cant oppor­tu­ni­ty, not a bur­den. For every dol­lar a com­pa­ny invests in adap­ta­tion and resilience mea­sures, it can yield $2 to $15 in finan­cial ben­e­fits. First movers in the pri­vate sec­tor will enjoy a dis­tinct advan­tage in cap­tur­ing mar­ket share, while those who fail to act may face increased risks: ris­ing oper­a­tional costs from raw mate­r­i­al price surges, dimin­ished rev­enue from decreased pro­duc­tion effi­cien­cy, unfore­seen asset dam­age, and high­er insur­ance pre­mi­ums.

This dis­par­i­ty presents a sub­stan­tial oppor­tu­ni­ty for for­ward-think­ing investors across strategies—venture, growth, infra­struc­ture, and devel­op­ment funds. Exist­ing ven­ture funds focused on adap­ta­tion and resilience, such as Tail­wind, SJF, and Buoy­ant, have already mapped out the broad­er space, high­light­ing the poten­tial for impact­ful invest­ments.

Adap­ta­tion invest­ments for ven­ture and growth investors can pos­sess (but not in all cas­es, e.g., infra­struc­ture projects) attrac­tive char­ac­ter­is­tics that make them com­pelling near-term oppor­tu­ni­ties, includ­ing low­er cap­i­tal expen­di­tures, improved risk-adjust­ed returns, and accel­er­at­ed pay­back peri­ods.

Recent exits of growth-stage com­pa­nies high­light the poten­tial for strong returns in the adap­ta­tion space:

• Con­stel­la­tion Cold Logis­tics: Acquired by EQT in June 2024, this lead­ing provider of tem­per­a­ture-con­trolled stor­age infra­struc­ture sup­ports food pro­duc­ers across Europe. Its facil­i­ties help pre­serve per­ish­able goods, enabling adap­ta­tion to ris­ing tem­per­a­tures and increas­ing sup­ply chain insta­bil­i­ty.
• Opti­m­i­ty: Acquired by RELEX Solu­tions in Jan­u­ary 2024, Opti­m­i­ty offers sup­ply chain plan­ning and opti­miza­tion ser­vices for con­sumer goods com­pa­nies, help­ing them adapt to evolv­ing mar­ket con­di­tions and cli­mate-relat­ed dis­rup­tions.
• BIOTROP: Aqua Cap­i­tal and GIC exit­ed BIOTROP in Sep­tem­ber 2023 to Biobest for $570 mil­lion. The com­pa­ny devel­ops bio­log­i­cal inputs for sus­tain­able crop pro­tec­tion and nutri­tion, aid­ing farm­ers in adapt­ing to shift­ing cli­mates, chang­ing pest pres­sures, and soil con­di­tions.
• The Cli­mate Ser­vice: Acquired by S&P Glob­al in Jan­u­ary 2022, this cli­mate risk ana­lyt­ics provider helps cor­po­rates and investors assess both phys­i­cal and tran­si­tion cli­mate risks. Its tools aid in quan­ti­fy­ing cli­mate risks in finan­cial terms, aid­ing busi­ness­es in adapt­ing to cli­mate change and reg­u­la­to­ry shifts.
• Food­Chain ID: Acquired by Berk­shire Part­ners in Decem­ber 2020, Food­Chain ID pro­vides test­ing, cer­ti­fi­ca­tion, and inspec­tion solu­tions for food qual­i­ty. Its ser­vices help food man­u­fac­tur­ers and proces­sors adapt to chang­ing safe­ty risks and reg­u­la­to­ry envi­ron­ments influ­enced by cli­mate change.
• Rivulis: Acquired by Temasek in Decem­ber 2020, Rivulis is a glob­al leader in micro-irri­ga­tion solu­tions, sup­port­ing sus­tain­able agri­cul­tur­al prac­tices. Its tech­nolo­gies help farm­ers increase crop yield while con­serv­ing water, address­ing cli­mate resilience through pre­ci­sion irri­ga­tion and dig­i­tal farm­ing solu­tions.

Key Areas of Opportunity in Food System Adaptation

With­in an evolv­ing land­scape of cli­mate chal­lenges and food secu­ri­ty con­cerns, Ground­Force Cap­i­tal has iden­ti­fied sev­er­al key areas where tech­nol­o­gy and inno­va­tion can address the press­ing issues in our food sys­tems.

These are cat­e­gories where we see real, scal­able solu­tions focus­ing on enhanc­ing resilience, opti­miz­ing resource use, improv­ing oper­a­tional effi­cien­cy, reduc­ing key busi­ness risk, and unlock­ing new val­ue streams while pre­sent­ing the oppor­tu­ni­ty to dri­ve sig­nif­i­cant soci­etal and invest­ment returns.

Enhancing Agricultural Resilience

• Diver­si­fy­ing crop vari­eties and imple­ment­ing regen­er­a­tive agri­cul­ture prac­tices to reduce cli­mate risk and enhance soil health.
• Uti­liz­ing pre­ci­sion agri­cul­ture tech­nolo­gies, includ­ing IoT sen­sors, drones, and AI, to opti­mize water usage and pre­dict crop health issues.
• Imple­ment­ing ver­ti­cal farm­ing and con­trolled-envi­ron­ment agri­cul­ture to reduce vul­ner­a­bil­i­ty to out­door cli­mate con­di­tions and opti­mize resource use.

Improving Water Management

• Devel­op­ing drought-resis­tant crop vari­eties and farm­ing tech­niques to main­tain pro­duc­tiv­i­ty with reduced water usage, par­tic­u­lar­ly in areas fac­ing increas­ing water scarci­ty.
• Imple­ment­ing water-sav­ing tech­nolo­gies such as effi­cient irri­ga­tion sys­tems and water leak detec­tion tools through­out the agri­cul­tur­al and man­u­fac­tur­ing sup­ply chain to improve water avail­abil­i­ty in water-stressed regions.
• Invest­ing in water recy­cling and treat­ment tech­nolo­gies for pro­cess­ing facil­i­ties, reduc­ing water con­sump­tion and depen­dence on fresh­wa­ter sources.

Building Resilient Infrastructure

• Imple­ment­ing smart cold chain solu­tions to main­tain food qual­i­ty dur­ing trans­port and stor­age in vari­able cli­mate con­di­tions.
• Adopt­ing renew­able ener­gy solu­tions and micro­grids, such as solar-pow­ered cold stor­age and local­ized pow­er sys­tems, to reduce emis­sions and ensure ener­gy reli­a­bil­i­ty for crit­i­cal food infra­struc­ture dur­ing grid dis­rup­tions.
• Invest­ing in advanced food preser­va­tion tech­nolo­gies to extend self-life and reduce vul­ner­a­bil­i­ty to sup­ply chain dis­rup­tions.

Optimizing Supply Chain & Distribution

• Uti­liz­ing advanced pre­dic­tive ana­lyt­ics to antic­i­pate cli­mate-relat­ed dis­rup­tions and enable proac­tive sup­ply chain man­age­ment.
• Build­ing local and region­al food sys­tems to short­en sup­ply chains and reduce expo­sure to glob­al dis­rup­tions.
• Deploy­ing AI-pow­ered inven­to­ry man­age­ment sys­tems to opti­mize stock lev­els and adapt to cli­mate-induced sup­ply fluc­tu­a­tions.

Enhancing Climate Risk Management & Decision-Making

• Devel­op­ing advanced cli­mate risk assess­ment tools for the food and agri­cul­ture sec­tor, incor­po­rat­ing big data and AI for more accu­rate pre­dic­tions.
• Cre­at­ing inno­v­a­tive insur­ance (e.g., para­met­ric insur­ance) and finan­cial prod­ucts (e.g., resilience cred­its) to help farm­ers and food busi­ness­es man­age cli­mate-relat­ed risks more effec­tive­ly.
• Uti­liz­ing dig­i­tal twins for food sup­ply chains to sim­u­late and opti­mize respons­es to var­i­ous cli­mate sce­nar­ios and imple­ment­ing ear­ly warn­ing sys­tems to mit­i­gate the impact of extreme weath­er events on pro­duc­tion and dis­tri­b­u­tion.

Seeding Solutions, Cultivating Prosperity

The era of cli­mate-dri­ven dis­rup­tion in our food sys­tems is here, dri­ven by decades of unsus­tain­able prac­tices com­pound­ed by anthro­pogenic cli­mate change and an increas­ing­ly com­plex glob­al sup­ply chain. While extreme weath­er and its effects on food sys­tems are inevitable, a com­plete col­lapse is not – pro­vid­ed we take bold and deci­sive action.

Address­ing this real­i­ty requires con­cert­ed efforts across the entire food val­ue chain. It demands fore­sight, cre­ativ­i­ty, inno­va­tion, and a fun­da­men­tal reimag­in­ing of how we grow, process, dis­trib­ute, and con­sume food. This is not just an essen­tial response to a more volatile world, but an unprece­dent­ed oppor­tu­ni­ty to rede­fine the rela­tion­ship between our food sys­tems and the nat­ur­al world.

Ground­Force Cap­i­tal is unique­ly posi­tioned to sup­port this crit­i­cal trans­for­ma­tion by iden­ti­fy­ing and invest­ing in inno­v­a­tive solu­tions that address the impact of cli­mate change on our food sys­tems. With our strong con­nec­tions across the entire ecosystem—from pro­duc­ers and dis­trib­u­tors to retail­ers and CPG companies—we act as a bridge, enabling com­pre­hen­sive, holis­tic solu­tions. Now is the time for reimag­in­ing our food sys­tems. By invest­ing in cli­mate adap­ta­tion today, we can ensure a resilient and sus­tain­able food sup­ply for tomor­row and fos­ter a more equi­table future for all.

About the Authors: This arti­cle was writ­ten by Eric Desai, Part­ner at Ground­Force Cap­i­tal, where he leads tech­nol­o­gy and ser­vices growth invest­ments across sup­ply chain man­age­ment, agtech, foodtech, man­u­fac­tur­ing, resource man­age­ment, and cir­cu­lar­i­ty. Spe­cial thanks to David Heifitz, our MBA Invest­ment Fel­low, who con­tributed valu­able insights to this piece.

Are you dri­ving mean­ing­ful change in these sec­tors? Whether you are a com­pa­ny demon­strat­ing real impact at scale or an investor pas­sion­ate about trans­form­ing con­sumer val­ue chains, we would love to con­nect.

Reach out to eric@groundforcecapital.com to explore oppor­tu­ni­ties for col­lab­o­ra­tion and to help shape a more resilient and sus­tain­able future togeth­er.